Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, May 17 · 19:00 · Olympique Marseille vs Rennes
Likeliest: Olympique Marseille win · 45%
We make it 69% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 60%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Marseille45%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−2
OursMarket
Rennes31%28%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 60% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 63% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 62% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Marseille
WinLossDrawLossWin
- May 10 · at Le Havre (A)1-0
- May 2 · at Nantes (A)0-3
- Apr 26 · v Nice (H)1-1
- Apr 18 · at Lorient (A)0-2
- Apr 10 · v Metz (H)3-1
Rennes
WinWinWinLossWin
- May 10 · v Paris (H)2-1
- May 3 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)2-4
- Apr 26 · v Nantes (H)2-1
- Apr 19 · at Strasbourg (A)3-0
- Apr 11 · v Angers SCO (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Olympique Marseille | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.