Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Feb 14 · 16:00 · Olympique Marseille vs Strasbourg
Likeliest: Olympique Marseille win · 48%
A 27% away win. The market says 21%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Marseille48%55%−7
OursMarket
Draw25%23%+1
OursMarket
Strasbourg27%21%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 79% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 45% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 72% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Marseille
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Feb 8 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-5
- Feb 3 · v Rennes (H)3-0
- Jan 31 · at Paris (A)2-2
- Jan 28 · at Club Brugge (A)0-3
- Jan 24 · v Lens (H)3-1
Strasbourg
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Feb 8 · at Le Havre (A)1-2
- Feb 5 · v Monaco (H)3-1
- Feb 1 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)1-2
- Jan 25 · at LOSC Lille (A)4-1
- Jan 18 · v Metz (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Olympique Marseille | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Olympique Marseille form·Strasbourg form·Head-to-head record