Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Nov 29 · 20:05 · Olympique Marseille vs Toulouse
Likeliest: Olympique Marseille win · 71%
We make it 72% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 54%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Marseille71%60%+10
OursMarket
Draw17%23%−5
OursMarket
Toulouse12%17%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 54% | +18 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 83% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 29% | 40% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 77% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 78% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Marseille
WinLossWinWinWin
- Nov 25 · v Newcastle United (H)2-1
- Nov 21 · at Nice (A)5-1
- Nov 8 · v Brest (H)3-0
- Nov 5 · v Atalanta (H)0-1
- Nov 1 · at Auxerre (A)1-0
Toulouse
LossDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Nov 23 · v Angers SCO (H)0-1
- Nov 9 · at Lorient (A)1-1
- Nov 2 · v Le Havre (H)0-0
- Oct 29 · v Rennes (H)2-2
- Oct 25 · at Monaco (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Olympique Marseille | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.