Gulf Cup (Asia) · Tue, Sep 29 · 17:30 · Oman vs Kuwait
Likeliest: Kuwait win · 42%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Oman35%61%−25
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Kuwait42%15%+26
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 47% | +8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 46% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 85% | −26 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 39% | +25 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 80% | −34 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Oman
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Sep 26 · v Saudi Arabia (H)0-3
- Sep 23 · at Iraq (A)1-1
- Jun 7 · v Mozambique (H)4-1
- Jun 5 · at Indonesia (A)0-3
- Nov 18 · v Côte d'Ivoire (H)0-2
Kuwait
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Sep 26 · v Iraq (H)2-3
- Sep 23 · at Saudi Arabia (A)0-1
- Jun 5 · at Thailand (A)2-2
- Nov 18 · v Gambia (H)2-2
- Nov 15 · v Tanzania (H)4-3
| Last 10 games | Oman | Kuwait |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.