Gulf Cup (Asia) · Sat, Sep 26 · 18:00 · Oman vs Saudi Arabia
Likeliest: Saudi Arabia win · 36%
A 33% home win. The market says 21%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Oman33%21%+12
OursMarket
Draw32%26%+6
OursMarket
Saudi Arabia36%53%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 47% | +18 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 79% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 74% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 28% | +20 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Oman
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 23 · at Iraq (A)1-1
- Jun 7 · v Mozambique (H)4-1
- Jun 5 · at Indonesia (A)0-3
- Nov 18 · v Côte d'Ivoire (H)0-2
- Nov 14 · v Sudan (H)2-0
Saudi Arabia
DrawDrawLossDrawWin
- Sep 23 · v Kuwait (H)1-0
- Jun 27 · at Cape Verde (A)0-0
- Jun 21 · at Spain (A)0-4
- Jun 15 · v Uruguay (H)1-1
- Jun 9 · v Senegal (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Oman | Saudi Arabia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-2 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-1 | 1-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.