Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 19:00 · Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica
Likeliest: Benfica win · 73%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 57% for both teams to score. The market says 52%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Omonia Nicosia8%12%−4
OursMarket
Draw19%19%0
OursMarket
Benfica73%69%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 52% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 27% | 31% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 92% | 88% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 81% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 10% | 15% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Omonia Nicosia
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 19 · v Olympiakos Nicosia (H)2-2
- Oct 15 · at NK Celje (A)3-0
- Oct 9 · at Karmiotissa Polemidion (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v Enosis Neon Ypsona FC (H)4-1
- Sep 16 · v Celta Vigo (H)1-0
Benfica
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 15 · v Celtic (H)4-1
- Oct 11 · v Vitória SC (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at FC Porto (A)1-3
- Sep 16 · at AC Milan (A)2-0
- Sep 13 · v Gil Vicente (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Omonia Nicosia | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.