Europa League (Europe) · Wed, Sep 16 · 16:45 · Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo
Likeliest: Celta Vigo win · 52%
A tight one: we make it 52% for the away win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Omonia Nicosia20%23%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%28%0
OursMarket
Celta Vigo52%49%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 51% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 77% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 28% | 32% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Omonia Nicosia
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 12 · v Apollon Limassol (H)0-0
- Sep 7 · at Aris Limassol (A)4-1
- Aug 31 · v Omonia Aradippou (H)0-0
- Aug 27 · v Sint-Truidense VV (H)4-2
- Aug 20 · at Sint-Truidense VV (A)0-1
Celta Vigo
LossLossDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 13 · v Málaga (H)1-1
- Sep 7 · at Getafe (A)1-1
- Sep 3 · at Real Sociedad (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · v Athletic Club (H)0-2
- Aug 27 · v Osasuna (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Omonia Nicosia | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 0-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.