Primera A (Colombia) · Sun, Oct 25 · 01:15 · Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira
Likeliest: Once Caldas win · 81%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 81% for the home win. The market says 77%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Once Caldas81%77%+3
OursMarket
Draw14%15%−2
OursMarket
Deportivo Pereira5%7%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 45% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 95% | 93% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 19% | 23% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 86% | 85% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 94% | 91% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Once Caldas
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 18 · at Independiente Medellín (A)2-0
- Oct 10 · v Llaneros FC (H)1-0
- Oct 4 · at Internacional de Bogotá (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Atlético Bucaramanga (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Deportivo Pasto (A)0-1
Deportivo Pereira
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 14 · at Junior Barranquilla (A)1-1
- Oct 10 · v Deportivo Cali (H)0-0
- Oct 4 · at Cúcuta Deportivo (A)0-4
- Sep 29 · v Independiente Santa Fe (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Internacional de Bogotá (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Once Caldas | Deportivo Pereira |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 1-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.