Primera A (Colombia) · Sat, Oct 10 · 01:10 · Once Caldas vs Llaneros FC
Likeliest: Once Caldas win · 64%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 64% for the home win. The market says 62%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Once Caldas64%62%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Llaneros FC13%15%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 48% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 38% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Once Caldas
LossWinLossDrawDraw
- Oct 4 · at Internacional de Bogotá (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Atlético Bucaramanga (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Deportivo Pasto (A)0-1
- Sep 16 · v Deportes Tolima (H)1-0
- Sep 13 · v Deportivo Cali (H)1-2
Llaneros FC
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 5 · v América de Cali (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · at Cúcuta Deportivo (A)1-2
- Sep 21 · v Atlético Nacional (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · at Internacional de Bogotá (A)2-3
- Sep 7 · v Deportes Tolima (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Once Caldas | Llaneros FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 1-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.