USL League One (USA) · Wed, Oct 7 · 23:00 · One Knoxville SC vs Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
Likeliest: One Knoxville SC win · 48%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
One Knoxville SC48%48%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Chattanooga Red Wolves SC25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
One Knoxville SC
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 3 · at Richmond Kickers (A)2-3
- Sep 27 · v Westchester SC (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Union Omaha SC (A)1-2
- Sep 16 · at Fort Wayne FC (A)3-2
- Sep 11 · v FC Naples (H)0-0
Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Oct 3 · v Corpus Christi FC (H)3-0
- Sep 30 · v Spokane Velocity FC (H)0-1
- Sep 26 · at FC Naples (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Portland Hearts of Pine (H)1-1
- Sep 16 · v Forward Madison FC (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | One Knoxville SC | Chattanooga Red Wolves SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-1 | 4-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.