USL League One (USA) · Sun, Oct 11 · 19:00 · One Knoxville SC vs Spokane Velocity FC
Likeliest: One Knoxville SC win · 43%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
One Knoxville SC43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+2
OursMarket
Spokane Velocity FC28%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
One Knoxville SC
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 7 · v Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (H)3-0
- Oct 3 · at Richmond Kickers (A)2-3
- Sep 27 · v Westchester SC (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Union Omaha SC (A)1-2
- Sep 16 · at Fort Wayne FC (A)3-2
Spokane Velocity FC
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 4 · v Portland Hearts of Pine (H)3-3
- Sep 30 · at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (A)1-0
- Sep 26 · at Forward Madison FC (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v AC Boise (H)2-2
- Sep 16 · at Union Omaha SC (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | One Knoxville SC | Spokane Velocity FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.