V-League (Vietnam) · Sat, Oct 17 · 10:00 · Đông Á Thanh Hóa vs Nam Định
Likeliest: Nam Định win · 49%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 49% for the away win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Đông Á Thanh Hóa19%23%−4
OursMarket
Draw32%30%+2
OursMarket
Nam Định49%47%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 77% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 27% | 33% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Đông Á Thanh Hóa
LossLossWinLossWin
- Oct 10 · at Hải Phòng (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · at Phù Đổng Ninh Bình (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v SHB Đà Nẵng (H)3-2
- Jun 7 · at SHB Đà Nẵng (A)0-4
- May 31 · v Phù Đổng Ninh Bình (H)0-2
Nam Định
DrawDrawWinLossDraw
- Oct 10 · v Phù Đổng Ninh Bình (H)1-1
- Sep 11 · at SHB Đà Nẵng (A)0-3
- Sep 6 · v Hoàng Anh Gia Lai (H)4-0
- Jun 7 · at Hải Phòng (A)1-1
- Jun 7 · at Hải Phòng (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Đông Á Thanh Hóa | Nam Định |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-0-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.