3rd Division, Group 6 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 · Oppsal vs Drøbak/Frogn
Likeliest: Drøbak/Frogn win · 38%
We make it 38% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 29%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Oppsal35%44%−9
OursMarket
Draw27%22%+5
OursMarket
Drøbak/Frogn38%34%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 71% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 61% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 66% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 56% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 78% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 56% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Oppsal
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 3 · at Lillehammer (A)2-3
- Sep 26 · v Brumunddal (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Ørn-Horten (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Fram Larvik (H)6-3
- Sep 5 · at Sandefjord Fotball II (A)1-2
Drøbak/Frogn
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 3 · v Sarpsborg 08 II (H)4-1
- Sep 26 · at Bjoerkelangen (A)6-0
- Sep 19 · v Gjøvik-Lyn (H)3-2
- Sep 12 · at Raelingen FK (A)2-2
- Sep 7 · v Lyn 1896 FK II (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Oppsal | Drøbak/Frogn |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 3.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.