Besta deild karla (Iceland) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Þór Akureyri vs ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar
Likeliest: ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar win · 40%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Þór Akureyri31%33%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%26%+2
OursMarket
ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar40%41%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 67% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Þór Akureyri
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 19 · at KA Akureyri (A)0-3
- Sep 13 · at Valur Reykjavík (A)1-4
- Sep 6 · v FH Hafnarfjörður (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar (A)1-0
- Aug 23 · at Stjarnan Garðabær (A)2-4
ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Sep 20 · v Valur Reykjavík (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Stjarnan Garðabær (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · at Stjarnan Garðabær (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v Þór Akureyri (H)0-1
- Aug 23 · at Keflavík IF (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Þór Akureyri | ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 0-4-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 0-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.