Besta deild karla (Iceland) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Þór Akureyri vs Stjarnan Garðabær
Likeliest: Stjarnan Garðabær win · 57%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 57% for the away win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Þór Akureyri22%26%−4
OursMarket
Draw21%21%0
OursMarket
Stjarnan Garðabær57%54%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 66% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 43% | 46% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 27% | 32% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Þór Akureyri
WinWinLossLossWin
- Oct 10 · v ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at KA Akureyri (A)0-3
- Sep 13 · at Valur Reykjavík (A)1-4
- Sep 6 · v FH Hafnarfjörður (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar (A)1-0
Stjarnan Garðabær
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v KA Akureyri (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · at FH Hafnarfjörður (A)2-5
- Sep 13 · v ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar (H)2-0
- Sep 6 · v ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar (H)2-2
- Aug 31 · at Breidablik Kópavogur (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Þór Akureyri | Stjarnan Garðabær |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-1 | 2-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.