USL Championship (USA) · Sun, Oct 18 · 02:00 · Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising FC
Likeliest: Phoenix Rising FC win · 46%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 63% for both teams to score. The market says 58%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Orange County SC27%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Phoenix Rising FC46%44%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 58% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 40% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Orange County SC
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 11 · at El Paso Locomotive FC (A)1-2
- Oct 4 · v Monterey Bay FC (H)1-2
- Sep 27 · v Pittsburgh Riverhounds (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Lexington SC (A)0-6
- Sep 13 · v Las Vegas Lights (H)0-2
Phoenix Rising FC
WinLossLossLossWin
- Oct 11 · v Las Vegas Lights (H)3-2
- Oct 4 · at New Mexico United (A)1-2
- Sep 27 · at Oakland Roots SC (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · v El Paso Locomotive FC (H)1-3
- Sep 13 · v FC Tulsa (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Orange County SC | Phoenix Rising FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-5 | 0-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.