Superettan (Sweden) · Sun, Oct 11 · 11:00 · Örebro vs Ljungskile SK
Likeliest: Örebro win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Örebro43%45%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Ljungskile SK30%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 57% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 60% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 60% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Örebro
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · at Sandvikens IF (A)2-4
- Sep 14 · v United IK Nordic (H)1-1
- Sep 10 · at GIF Sundsvall (A)3-0
- Sep 7 · v Östersunds FK (H)0-1
- Sep 1 · at Helsingborg (A)1-1
Ljungskile SK
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Sep 20 · at GIF Sundsvall (A)2-3
- Sep 13 · v Falkenbergs FF (H)0-2
- Sep 9 · v Norrby IF (H)2-1
- Sep 4 · at Norrköping (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v Värnamo (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Örebro | Ljungskile SK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-4 | 2-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.