LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Sat, Oct 24 · 19:00 · Orense SC vs Delfín
Likeliest: Orense SC win · 51%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Orense SC51%51%0
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Delfín21%22%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 44% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 69% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Orense SC
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 19 · at Mushuc Runa (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Deportivo Cuenca (H)0-0
- Sep 21 · at Manta FC (A)1-2
- Sep 15 · at Universidad Católica del Ecuador (A)1-2
- Sep 8 · v Guayaquil City (H)4-3
Delfín
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Manta FC (H)4-2
- Oct 9 · v Mushuc Runa (H)3-2
- Sep 20 · at Técnico Universitario (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Barcelona SC (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Universidad Católica del Ecuador (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Orense SC | Delfín |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-4 | 1-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.