LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Sun, Oct 11 · 18:45 · Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca
Likeliest: Orense SC win · 44%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Orense SC44%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Deportivo Cuenca26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 49% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Orense SC
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 21 · at Manta FC (A)1-2
- Sep 15 · at Universidad Católica del Ecuador (A)1-2
- Sep 8 · v Guayaquil City (H)4-3
- Sep 3 · at Leones del Norte (A)0-1
- Aug 30 · v Macará (H)1-2
Deportivo Cuenca
LossWinLossDrawDraw
- Sep 20 · v Mushuc Runa (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at LDU (A)1-1
- Sep 7 · v Libertad (H)0-1
- Sep 2 · v Guayaquil City (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Técnico Universitario (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Orense SC | Deportivo Cuenca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-4 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.