Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Sun, Oct 18 · 14:30 · Örgryte IS vs GAIS
Likeliest: GAIS win · 56%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 56% for the away win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Örgryte IS18%20%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%23%+3
OursMarket
GAIS56%57%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 44% | 43% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 77% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 24% | 26% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Örgryte IS
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 11 · at BK Häcken (A)0-3
- Sep 19 · v IK Sirius (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Malmö FF (A)1-4
- Sep 6 · v Hammarby (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at Göteborg (A)0-1
GAIS
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 10 · v IK Sirius (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Mjällby (A)3-0
- Sep 14 · at Djurgården (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v BK Häcken (H)0-0
- Aug 31 · v IF Brommapojkarna (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Örgryte IS | GAIS |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.