Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Sat, Sep 19 · 15:30 · Örgryte IS vs IK Sirius
Likeliest: IK Sirius win · 66%
A tight one: we make it 66% for the away win. The market says 63%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Örgryte IS13%17%−3
OursMarket
Draw21%20%0
OursMarket
IK Sirius66%63%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 34% | 37% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 87% | 83% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 17% | 21% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 2.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Örgryte IS
DrawDrawLossDrawLoss
- Sep 13 · at Malmö FF (A)1-4
- Sep 6 · v Hammarby (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at Göteborg (A)0-1
- Aug 25 · at Eskilsminne IF (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Halmstads BK (H)1-1
IK Sirius
LossWinLossWinWin
- Sep 14 · v Degerfors IF (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · at Västerås SK (A)1-0
- Aug 31 · v Malmö FF (H)0-1
- Aug 26 · at Friska Viljor FC (A)2-0
- Aug 21 · v BK Häcken (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Örgryte IS | IK Sirius |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-1 | 9-0-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.