División Profesional (Bolivia) · Sat, Oct 10 · 23:30 · Oriente Petrolero vs Academia del Balompié Boliviano
Likeliest: Oriente Petrolero win · 69%
Likely score: 3–0
A tight one: we make it 69% for the home win. The market says 66%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Oriente Petrolero69%66%+3
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
Academia del Balompié Boliviano15%16%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 84% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 34% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 3.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Oriente Petrolero
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 17 · at CD Real Tomayapo (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · at Real Potosí (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Club Always Ready (H)1-2
- Aug 25 · at GV San José (A)3-3
- Aug 22 · v San Antonio Bulo-Bulo (H)4-0
Academia del Balompié Boliviano
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 15 · v The Strongest (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Blooming (A)1-6
- Sep 4 · v FC Universitario de Vinto (H)2-0
- Aug 28 · at Bolívar (A)1-4
- Aug 22 · v GV San José (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Oriente Petrolero | Academia del Balompié Boliviano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-2 | 0-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.