Leagues Cup (North & Central America) · Wed, Aug 12 · 23:30 · Orlando City SC vs Atlético San Luis
Likeliest: Orlando City SC win · 43%
A 34% away win. The market says 16%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Orlando City SC43%64%−22
OursMarket
Draw24%20%+4
OursMarket
Atlético San Luis34%16%+18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 64% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 73% | 58% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 84% | −18 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 36% | +22 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 80% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 80% | −24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Orlando City SC
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Aug 8 · v Club León (H)1-2
- Aug 5 · at CF Monterrey (A)2-1
- Aug 1 · at New York Red Bulls (A)2-3
- Jul 25 · v Nashville SC (H)1-0
- Jul 23 · at San Jose Earthquakes (A)4-0
Atlético San Luis
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Aug 10 · at Nashville SC (A)1-4
- Aug 5 · at Inter Miami CF (A)2-4
- Aug 1 · v Club Tijuana (H)0-0
- Jul 25 · at Tigres UANL (A)2-2
- Jul 18 · v Cruz Azul (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Orlando City SC | Atlético San Luis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.