Major League Soccer (USA) · Sat, Oct 17 · 23:30 · Orlando City SC vs DC United
Likeliest: Orlando City SC win · 51%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Orlando City SC51%56%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%22%+3
OursMarket
DC United24%23%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 66% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 77% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 44% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 78% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Orlando City SC
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Oct 14 · at Toronto FC (A)3-3
- Oct 10 · v Columbus Crew (H)3-2
- Sep 26 · at Philadelphia Union (A)2-4
- Sep 19 · at New England Revolution (A)2-4
- Sep 16 · at Columbus Crew (A)1-2
DC United
DrawLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 14 · v New York Red Bulls (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · at Inter Miami CF (A)0-4
- Sep 27 · at Vancouver Whitecaps (A)3-3
- Sep 19 · v Charlotte FC (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Atlanta United (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Orlando City SC | DC United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 1-6-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.