Major League Soccer (USA) · Sat, Oct 24 · 23:30 · Orlando City SC vs New York City FC
Likeliest: Orlando City SC win · 40%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Orlando City SC40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
New York City FC35%34%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 68% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 67% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 54% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Orlando City SC
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v DC United (H)4-1
- Oct 14 · at Toronto FC (A)3-3
- Oct 10 · v Columbus Crew (H)3-2
- Sep 26 · at Philadelphia Union (A)2-4
- Sep 19 · at New England Revolution (A)2-4
New York City FC
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 17 · v Los Angeles FC (H)1-1
- Oct 14 · at Inter Miami CF (A)0-2
- Oct 10 · at Chicago Fire (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · at Atlanta United (A)2-2
- Sep 18 · v New York Red Bulls (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Orlando City SC | New York City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.