Premier Division (South Africa) · Thu, Sep 17 · 17:30 · Orlando Pirates vs Durban City FC
Likeliest: Orlando Pirates win · 65%
We make it 64% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 56%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Orlando Pirates65%71%−6
OursMarket
Draw25%20%+5
OursMarket
Durban City FC10%9%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 44% | −8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 41% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 91% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 29% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 80% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 89% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Orlando Pirates
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 12 · v La Cure Sylvester SC (H)3-1
- Sep 6 · at La Cure Sylvester SC (A)0-0
- Sep 1 · at Kruger United (A)4-0
- Aug 25 · v Sekhukhune United (H)2-0
- Aug 16 · at Chippa United (A)3-0
Durban City FC
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 13 · at Rukinzo FC (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Rukinzo FC (H)1-0
- Sep 1 · v Stellenbosch (H)0-0
- Aug 25 · at Kruger United (A)2-0
- Aug 15 · v Richards Bay FC (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Orlando Pirates | Durban City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 80% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.