Premier Division (South Africa) · Tue, Oct 13 · 17:30 · Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy
Likeliest: Orlando Pirates win · 73%
Likely score: 2–0
We make it 58% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 54%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Orlando Pirates73%70%+3
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
TS Galaxy9%10%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 46% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 41% | 39% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 90% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 30% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 0.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Orlando Pirates
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 20 · at Marumo Gallants FC (A)2-0
- Sep 17 · v Durban City FC (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · v La Cure Sylvester SC (H)3-1
- Sep 6 · at La Cure Sylvester SC (A)0-0
- Sep 1 · at Kruger United (A)4-0
TS Galaxy
DrawWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 20 · v Chippa United (H)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Kruger United (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at Sekhukhune United (A)0-0
- Aug 25 · at Marumo Gallants FC (A)3-2
- Aug 16 · v Lamontville Golden Arrows (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Orlando Pirates | TS Galaxy |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-2-0 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 80% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.