NWSL (USA) · Sun, Oct 25 · 19:00 · Orlando Pride vs NJ/NY Gotham FC
Likeliest: NJ/NY Gotham FC win · 59%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 59% for the away win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Orlando Pride17%22%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%24%+1
OursMarket
NJ/NY Gotham FC59%55%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 42% | 45% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 83% | 78% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 23% | 28% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Orlando Pride
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · at Houston Dash (A)2-1
- Oct 3 · v San Diego Wave FC (H)1-2
- Sep 27 · at Bay FC (A)3-1
- Sep 19 · v Portland Thorns FC (H)1-4
- Sep 12 · at Kansas City Current (A)2-2
NJ/NY Gotham FC
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at Washington Spirit (A)0-1
- Oct 4 · v Angel City FC (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Chicago Stars FC (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at North Carolina Courage (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · at Racing Louisville (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Orlando Pride | NJ/NY Gotham FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-5 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.