NWSL (USA) · Sat, Oct 3 · 00:00 · Orlando Pride vs San Diego Wave FC
Likeliest: San Diego Wave FC win · 47%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 47% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Orlando Pride26%29%−4
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
San Diego Wave FC47%45%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 71% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 40% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Orlando Pride
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Sep 27 · at Bay FC (A)3-1
- Sep 19 · v Portland Thorns FC (H)1-4
- Sep 12 · at Kansas City Current (A)2-2
- Sep 6 · v Houston Dash (H)3-1
- Aug 29 · v Utah Royals FC (H)1-2
San Diego Wave FC
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Sep 25 · at Racing Louisville (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Kansas City Current (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · v North Carolina Courage (H)2-1
- Sep 7 · at Seattle Reign FC (A)0-1
- Aug 29 · v Racing Louisville (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Orlando Pride | San Diego Wave FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-4 | 2-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.