La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Jan 3 · 15:15 · Osasuna vs Athletic Club
Likeliest: Osasuna win · 42%
A 42% home win. The market says 31%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Osasuna42%31%+11
OursMarket
Draw27%32%−5
OursMarket
Athletic Club31%37%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 39% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 47% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 63% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 69% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 68% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 45% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Osasuna
WinWinLossWinWin
- Dec 20 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)3-0
- Dec 17 · at Huesca (A)4-2
- Dec 13 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-2
- Dec 8 · v Levante (H)2-0
- Dec 2 · at CD Ebro (A)5-3
Athletic Club
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Dec 22 · v Espanyol (H)1-2
- Dec 14 · at Celta de Vigo (A)0-2
- Dec 10 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-0
- Dec 6 · v Atlético Madrid (H)1-0
- Dec 3 · v Real Madrid (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Osasuna | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.