La Liga (Spain) · Tue, May 12 · 19:30 · Osasuna vs Atlético Madrid
Likeliest: Osasuna win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Osasuna41%37%+4
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Atlético Madrid31%35%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 52% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 57% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 65% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 63% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 51% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Osasuna
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- May 8 · at Levante (A)2-3
- May 2 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-2
- Apr 26 · v Sevilla (H)2-1
- Apr 21 · at Athletic Club (A)0-1
- Apr 12 · v Real Betis (H)1-1
Atlético Madrid
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- May 9 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-1
- May 5 · at Arsenal (A)0-1
- May 2 · at Valencia (A)2-0
- Apr 29 · v Arsenal (H)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Athletic Club (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Osasuna | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.