La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Dec 20 · 17:30 · Osasuna vs Deportivo Alavés
Likeliest: Osasuna win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Osasuna41%42%−1
OursMarket
Draw31%32%−1
OursMarket
Deportivo Alavés29%27%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 36% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 61% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Osasuna
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Dec 17 · at Huesca (A)4-2
- Dec 13 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-2
- Dec 8 · v Levante (H)2-0
- Dec 2 · at CD Ebro (A)5-3
- Nov 29 · at Mallorca (A)2-2
Deportivo Alavés
LossWinWinLossWin
- Dec 17 · v Sevilla (H)1-0
- Dec 14 · v Real Madrid (H)1-2
- Dec 6 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-0
- Dec 2 · at Portugalete (A)3-0
- Nov 29 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Osasuna | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.