La Liga (Spain) · Sun, May 17 · 17:00 · Osasuna vs Espanyol
Likeliest: Osasuna win · 54%
A 54% home win. The market says 45%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Osasuna54%45%+8
OursMarket
Draw25%30%−5
OursMarket
Espanyol21%25%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 43% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 75% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 55% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 70% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 65% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Osasuna
LossWinLossLossLoss
- May 12 · v Atlético Madrid (H)1-2
- May 8 · at Levante (A)2-3
- May 2 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-2
- Apr 26 · v Sevilla (H)2-1
- Apr 21 · at Athletic Club (A)0-1
Espanyol
LossDrawLossLossWin
- May 13 · v Athletic Club (H)2-0
- May 9 · at Sevilla (A)1-2
- May 3 · v Real Madrid (H)0-2
- Apr 27 · v Levante (H)0-0
- Apr 23 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Osasuna | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 0-3-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.