La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Sep 12 · 14:15 · Osasuna vs Espanyol
Likeliest: Osasuna win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Osasuna43%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw31%30%+2
OursMarket
Espanyol25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 43% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Osasuna
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Sep 6 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-5
- Aug 31 · v Getafe (H)1-0
- Aug 27 · at Celta Vigo (A)2-1
- Aug 24 · v Levante UD (H)0-0
- May 23 · at Getafe (A)0-1
Espanyol
DrawWinLossLossDraw
- Sep 6 · v Sevilla (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-2
- Aug 22 · v Real Madrid (H)1-2
- Aug 16 · v Levante UD (H)3-0
- May 23 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Osasuna | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.