La Liga (Spain) · Sat, May 2 · 19:00 · Osasuna vs FC Barcelona
Likeliest: FC Barcelona win · 57%
A tight one: we make it 57% for the away win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Osasuna23%21%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%24%−3
OursMarket
FC Barcelona57%55%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 79% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 76% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 28% | 27% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Osasuna
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Apr 26 · v Sevilla (H)2-1
- Apr 21 · at Athletic Club (A)0-1
- Apr 12 · v Real Betis (H)1-1
- Apr 5 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · v Girona (H)1-0
FC Barcelona
LossWinWinWinWin
- Apr 25 · at Getafe (A)2-0
- Apr 22 · v Celta de Vigo (H)1-0
- Apr 14 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-1
- Apr 11 · v Espanyol (H)4-1
- Apr 8 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Osasuna | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.