La Liga (Spain) · Mon, Aug 31 · 17:30 · Osasuna vs Getafe
Likeliest: Osasuna win · 48%
We make it 45% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 32%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Osasuna48%44%+4
OursMarket
Draw27%32%−5
OursMarket
Getafe25%24%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 32% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 39% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 76% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 56% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 68% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 64% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Osasuna
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Aug 27 · at Celta Vigo (A)2-1
- Aug 24 · v Levante UD (H)0-0
- May 23 · at Getafe (A)0-1
- May 17 · v Espanyol (H)1-2
- May 12 · v Atlético Madrid (H)1-2
Getafe
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Aug 27 · at FK Partizan (A)1-2
- Aug 23 · v Racing de Santander (H)1-0
- Aug 20 · v FK Partizan (H)3-1
- Aug 15 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-3
- May 23 · v Osasuna (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Osasuna | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.