La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Mar 21 · 17:30 · Osasuna vs Girona
Likeliest: Girona win · 40%
A 40% away win. The market says 26%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Osasuna38%46%−9
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−5
OursMarket
Girona40%26%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 50% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 54% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 74% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 54% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 64% | −15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Osasuna
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Mar 15 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-3
- Mar 7 · v Mallorca (H)2-2
- Mar 1 · at Valencia (A)0-1
- Feb 21 · v Real Madrid (H)2-1
- Feb 13 · at Elche (A)0-0
Girona
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Mar 14 · v Athletic Club (H)3-0
- Mar 7 · at Levante (A)1-1
- Mar 1 · v Celta de Vigo (H)1-2
- Feb 23 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-2
- Feb 16 · v FC Barcelona (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Osasuna | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.