La Liga (Spain) · Mon, Dec 8 · 20:00 · Osasuna vs Levante
Likeliest: Osasuna win · 40%
A 37% away win. The market says 20%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Osasuna40%54%−15
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
Levante37%20%+17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 49% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 80% | −17 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 46% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 73% | −21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Osasuna
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Dec 2 · at CD Ebro (A)5-3
- Nov 29 · at Mallorca (A)2-2
- Nov 22 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-3
- Nov 8 · at Sevilla (A)0-1
- Nov 3 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-0
Levante
LossLossLossLossWin
- Dec 3 · at Cieza (A)1-0
- Nov 29 · v Athletic Club (H)0-2
- Nov 21 · at Valencia (A)0-1
- Nov 8 · at Atlético Madrid (A)1-3
- Nov 2 · v Celta de Vigo (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Osasuna | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.