La Liga (Spain) · Mon, Aug 24 · 17:30 · Osasuna vs Levante UD
Likeliest: Osasuna win · 44%
A 33% away win. The market says 21%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Osasuna44%53%−9
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−3
OursMarket
Levante UD33%21%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 79% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 47% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 72% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Osasuna
LossLossLossLossLoss
- May 23 · at Getafe (A)0-1
- May 17 · v Espanyol (H)1-2
- May 12 · v Atlético Madrid (H)1-2
- May 8 · at Levante (A)2-3
- May 2 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-2
Levante UD
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Aug 16 · at Espanyol (A)0-3
- May 23 · at Real Betis (A)1-2
- May 17 · v Mallorca (H)2-0
- May 12 · at Celta de Vigo (A)3-2
- May 8 · v Osasuna (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Osasuna | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.