La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Mar 7 · 13:00 · Osasuna vs Mallorca
Likeliest: Osasuna win · 52%
We make it 63% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Osasuna52%54%−1
OursMarket
Draw22%27%−5
OursMarket
Mallorca26%20%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 44% | +19 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 46% | +18 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 80% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 46% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 73% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Osasuna
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Mar 1 · at Valencia (A)0-1
- Feb 21 · v Real Madrid (H)2-1
- Feb 13 · at Elche (A)0-0
- Feb 6 · at Celta de Vigo (A)2-1
- Jan 31 · v Villarreal (H)2-2
Mallorca
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Feb 28 · v Real Sociedad (H)0-1
- Feb 22 · at Celta de Vigo (A)0-2
- Feb 15 · v Real Betis (H)1-2
- Feb 7 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-3
- Feb 2 · v Sevilla (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Osasuna | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.