La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Sep 19 · 12:00 · Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano
Likeliest: Osasuna win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Osasuna39%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Rayo Vallecano30%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 52% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 57% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Osasuna
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Sep 16 · at Atletico Madrid (A)0-4
- Sep 12 · v Espanyol (H)0-2
- Sep 6 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-5
- Aug 31 · v Getafe (H)1-0
- Aug 27 · at Celta Vigo (A)2-1
Rayo Vallecano
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Sep 15 · v Espanyol (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Real Madrid (A)1-4
- Sep 5 · v Racing de Santander (H)3-2
- Aug 31 · at Barcelona (A)2-5
- Aug 20 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Osasuna | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.