La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Apr 12 · 12:00 · Osasuna vs Real Betis
Likeliest: Osasuna win · 48%
A 48% home win. The market says 43%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Osasuna48%43%+5
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−3
OursMarket
Real Betis28%29%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 57% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 59% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Osasuna
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- Apr 5 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · v Girona (H)1-0
- Mar 15 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-3
- Mar 7 · v Mallorca (H)2-2
- Mar 1 · at Valencia (A)0-1
Real Betis
DrawWinLossDrawDraw
- Apr 8 · at Sporting Braga (A)1-1
- Apr 4 · v Espanyol (H)0-0
- Mar 22 · at Athletic Club (A)1-2
- Mar 19 · v Panathinaikos (H)4-0
- Mar 15 · v Celta de Vigo (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Osasuna | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.