La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Feb 15 · 15:15 · Osasuna vs Real Madrid
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the away win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Osasuna25%——
OursMarket
Draw23%——
OursMarket
Real Madrid51%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Osasuna
DrawDrawWinLossDraw
- Feb 10 · at Mallorca (A)1-1
- Feb 6 · at Real Sociedad (A)0-2
- Feb 2 · v Real Sociedad (H)2-1
- Jan 24 · at Las Palmas (A)1-1
- Jan 19 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-1
Real Madrid
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Feb 11 · at Manchester City (A)3-2
- Feb 8 · v Atlético Madrid (H)1-1
- Feb 5 · at Leganés (A)3-2
- Feb 1 · at Espanyol (A)0-1
- Jan 29 · at Brest (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Osasuna | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-2 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 6-0-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.