La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Feb 21 · 17:30 · Osasuna vs Real Madrid
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 43%
A 34% home win. The market says 20%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Osasuna34%20%+14
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Real Madrid43%56%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 57% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 57% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 44% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 80% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 26% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Osasuna
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Feb 13 · at Elche (A)0-0
- Feb 6 · at Celta de Vigo (A)2-1
- Jan 31 · v Villarreal (H)2-2
- Jan 24 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)3-1
- Jan 17 · v Real Oviedo (H)3-2
Real Madrid
LossWinWinWinWin
- Feb 17 · at Benfica (A)1-0
- Feb 14 · v Real Sociedad (H)4-1
- Feb 8 · at Valencia (A)2-0
- Feb 1 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)2-1
- Jan 28 · at Benfica (A)2-4
| Last 10 games | Osasuna | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.