La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Nov 22 · 17:30 · Osasuna vs Real Sociedad
Likeliest: Real Sociedad win · 45%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Osasuna34%35%−1
OursMarket
Draw22%31%−9
OursMarket
Real Sociedad45%34%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 41% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 66% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 65% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 69% | +9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 50% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Osasuna
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Nov 8 · at Sevilla (A)0-1
- Nov 3 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-0
- Oct 29 · at CE Sant Jordi (A)5-0
- Oct 26 · v Celta de Vigo (H)2-3
- Oct 18 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-1
Real Sociedad
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Nov 7 · at Elche (A)1-1
- Nov 1 · v Athletic Club (H)3-2
- Oct 28 · at Negreira (A)3-0
- Oct 24 · v Sevilla (H)2-1
- Oct 19 · at Celta de Vigo (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Osasuna | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.