La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Apr 26 · 16:30 · Osasuna vs Sevilla
Likeliest: Osasuna win · 52%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Osasuna52%48%+4
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−5
OursMarket
Sevilla25%24%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 44% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 50% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 52% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 66% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Osasuna
LossWinDrawDrawLoss
- Apr 21 · at Athletic Club (A)0-1
- Apr 12 · v Real Betis (H)1-1
- Apr 5 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · v Girona (H)1-0
- Mar 15 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-3
Sevilla
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Apr 23 · at Levante (A)0-2
- Apr 11 · v Atlético Madrid (H)2-1
- Apr 5 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-1
- Mar 21 · v Valencia (H)0-2
- Mar 15 · at FC Barcelona (A)2-5
| Last 10 games | Osasuna | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.