Superettan (Sweden) · Sat, Sep 19 · 11:00 · Östers IF vs Norrköping
Likeliest: Norrköping win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the away win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Östers IF20%24%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Norrköping55%53%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 76% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 27% | 31% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Östers IF
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 15 · at Värnamo (A)3-1
- Sep 10 · at Falkenbergs FF (A)1-2
- Sep 4 · v United IK Nordic (H)1-2
- Aug 30 · at Sandvikens IF (A)1-1
- Aug 25 · v GIF Sundsvall (H)1-0
Norrköping
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 13 · v IK Oddevold (H)0-0
- Sep 10 · at Varbergs BoIS (A)2-0
- Sep 4 · v Ljungskile SK (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at United IK Nordic (A)3-1
- Aug 24 · v Falkenbergs FF (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Östers IF | Norrköping |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-3 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.