Superettan (Sweden) · Sat, Oct 24 · 11:00 · Östersunds FK vs United IK Nordic
Likeliest: Östersunds FK win · 60%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 63%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Östersunds FK60%63%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%22%+3
OursMarket
United IK Nordic15%15%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 52% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 85% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 37% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 78% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Östersunds FK
DrawWinDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · at Sandvikens IF (A)0-0
- Oct 10 · v Varbergs BoIS (H)1-1
- Sep 18 · at Falkenbergs FF (A)0-0
- Sep 14 · v Helsingborg (H)1-0
- Sep 10 · v IK Brage (H)1-1
United IK Nordic
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Oct 18 · v Norrby IF (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · at IK Oddevold (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · v Landskrona (H)1-4
- Sep 14 · at Örebro (A)1-1
- Sep 9 · v Värnamo (H)2-4
| Last 10 games | Östersunds FK | United IK Nordic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-7-0 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-1 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.