Superettan (Sweden) · Sat, Oct 10 · 13:00 · Östersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS
Likeliest: Östersunds FK win · 41%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Östersunds FK41%44%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+2
OursMarket
Varbergs BoIS28%28%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Östersunds FK
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 18 · at Falkenbergs FF (A)0-0
- Sep 14 · v Helsingborg (H)1-0
- Sep 10 · v IK Brage (H)1-1
- Sep 7 · at Örebro (A)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Landskrona (A)1-1
Varbergs BoIS
WinDrawLossWinWin
- Sep 19 · v IK Brage (H)3-2
- Sep 14 · at Norrby IF (A)2-1
- Sep 10 · v Norrköping (H)0-2
- Sep 5 · at Värnamo (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v IK Oddevold (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Östersunds FK | Varbergs BoIS |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-5-0 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.4 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-1 | 4-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.