Championship (England) · Wed, Mar 11 · 19:45 · Oxford United vs Blackburn Rovers
Likeliest: Oxford United win · 43%
We make it 52% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Oxford United43%34%+9
OursMarket
Draw25%30%−5
OursMarket
Blackburn Rovers32%36%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 43% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 50% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 64% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 66% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 70% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 49% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Oxford United
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Mar 6 · at Preston North End (A)3-1
- Feb 28 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)2-1
- Feb 25 · at Stoke City (A)1-2
- Feb 21 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-0
- Feb 15 · v Sunderland (H)0-1
Blackburn Rovers
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Mar 7 · v Portsmouth (H)1-1
- Feb 28 · at Derby County (A)1-3
- Feb 24 · v Bristol City (H)1-2
- Feb 20 · v Preston North End (H)1-0
- Feb 14 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Oxford United | Blackburn Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Oxford United form·Blackburn Rovers form·Head-to-head record